Despite Predicted "El Nino" Conditions, Drought and Fire Danger Remains in Much of the Western U.S.

Lately, it has been pretty well known that many areas in the Western U.S. actually have a year-round fire season. It is nothing out of the ordinary for most wildland firefighters around here. I’ll take our temperatures in the low 80’s today as a blessing… much nicer than the minus 20’s and 30’s in North Dakota this morning.

Despite some spotty rainfall amounts in November and early December, much of the Western U.S. is still well behind normal seasonal rainfall averages.

Even as a supposed “El Nino” season is underway, the west is still in the midst of a decades long drought cycle. Time will tell if significant rainfall… and more importantly, if significant rainfall durations occur. These conditions are troubling to wildland fire managers, especially in their implications and possibilities during the normal prescribed burning season, and during our “non-peak” preparedness levels.

In much of Southern California, there are hints of green in the foothills, unfortunately green with non-native grasses that are beginning to grow.

Looking up into the highest peaks surrounding our valley, places that should have a decent snowpack are mostly brown, barren, and snowless.

In the chaparral and shrubland communities between the foothills and highest peaks (a community of fuels dominated primarily by live fuels that remain dormant throughout the winter, and the live-to-dead fuel ratios of 1 hr. and 10 hr. dead timelag fuels that fluctuate hourly/daily), things are looking fairly bleak.

With the lack of recent rainfall, and the recent warm weather (in some places, record breaking warmth and low humidity), the drought strained chaparral is still bone dry until green up occurs in late March and April. Add in the recent drying trend over the last several weeks of the 1 and 10 hour time-lag dead fuels… things are setting up for our customary and expected…. Oh Crap… We Didn’t See That Coming spat of wildfires when the winds blow. As usual, the fire service agencies will “take it in the shorts” from the media for not staffing up and being appropriately prepared or informed.

A potential moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is in the weather models for Thursday and Friday of this upcoming week for interior Southern California. A huge 1050 mb high pressure is predicted to move somewhere into the Great Basin between NE Nevada and SW Wyoming. Stay tuned. Maintain your SA. If you lit piles in the last few weeks… check them and make sure they are out.

Factual References in the Last Decade (2000-2009):

Multiple Large and IA Wildfires – Southern California, 23-Dec-1999 to 18-Jan-2000

Viejas Fire (5,500 Acres) – Cleveland National Forest, 02-Jan-2001

Gavilan Fire (5,000 Acres) – San Diego Unit – CAL FIRE, 10-Feb-2002

Pacific Fire (759 Acres) – Los Angeles County Fire Department, 08-Jan-2003

Multiple Small Fires – Southern California, 07 thru 09-Jan-2003

Plunge Fire (485 Acres) – San Bernardino National Forest, 23-Jan-2006

Sierra Fire (10,584 Acres) – Cleveland National Forest, 06-Feb-2006

Multiple IA Fires – Southern California, 06 thru 12-Jan-2006

Mockingbird Fire (670 Acres) – Riverside Unit – CAL FIRE, 05-Jan-2007

Red Star (620 Acres) – San Bernardino Unit – CAL FIRE, 07-Jan-2007

Diablo Fire (332 Acres) – San Luis Obispo Unit – CAL FIRE, 14-Jan-2007

Multiple IA Fires – Southern California, 05 thru 22-Jan-2007

Multiple IA Fires – Southern California, 03 thru 06-Feb-2009

Note: For every large fire described above, multiple IA fires were happening in other areas at the same time. Whenever the winds blow… expect increased IA activity…. it’s not rocket science… it’s FIRE SCIENCE.

..